Global Director, Forecasting – Infectious Disease

The Director is a senior global forecasting leader responsible for demand forecasting across the Infectious Disease portfolio spanning early-stage late-stage and in-market assets as well as business development and investment case building. The role serves as the global forecasting lead and strategic thought partnertoEarly Commercial Finance Market Access & Pricing Marketing Medical Research &Development and Business Development teams. The position also includes vendor and resource management to ensure rigorous use of data and analytics within forecasting continuous improvement of forecasting approaches and delivery of decision-grade commercial assessments. Time allocation may vary by business cycle and portfolio priorities.

Youllplay a critical role in shaping global commercial expectations portfolio choices risk and opportunity framing and executive decision-making for early-stage late-stage in-market and external business development opportunities.

Whatyoulldo

Global Forecasting Leadership (Core Accountability)

• Lead global short- and long-term demandforecastsincluding patients volume treatment starts and revenuefor ID assets using robust patient-based and market-based models.

• Own forecastmethodology assumptions and governance ensuring objectivity transparency and consistency with enterprise standards.

• Develop and refine forecasts for early-stage late-stageassets to support stage-gate decisions portfolio prioritization investment choices and resource allocation.

• Use primary market research epidemiology competitive intelligence access and pricing dynamics real-world evidence and other relevant data and analytics to inform forecast assumptions and models.

• Proactivelyidentifyand quantify key risks and opportunities through scenario and sensitivity analyses.

• Partner closely with Early Commercial Finance Market Access & Pricing Marketing Medical Research &Development Business Development and regional or market teams to ensure alignment on assumptions and implications.

• Support global business planning governance reviews portfolio decisions and opportunity assessments with clear executive-ready narratives.

• Serve as a trusted advisor to senior global leaders clearly articulating forecast drivers changes uncertainties and strategic implications.

Business Development and Investment Case Building

• Lead forecasting and commercial case development for business development opportunities including in-licensing partnerships acquisitions and other external innovation opportunities.

• Build patient-based market models revenue forecasts risk-adjusted scenarios and commercial inputs to valuation and investment cases.

• Conduct commercial due diligence by assessing unmet need patient pathways market evolution competitive dynamics access and pricing considerations and strategic fit.

• Translate incomplete or uncertain evidence into transparent assumptions scenarios trade-offs and recommendations for governance and executive decision-making.

• Ensure alignment between business development forecasts internal pipeline forecasts therapeutic area strategy and portfolio planning.

Forecasting Capability and Resource Leadership

• Ensure relevant data analytics and insights are applied appropriately to forecasting scenario development and business case building.

• Manage and prioritize internal forecasters contractors and external vendors supporting forecasting and business development deliverables.

• Partner with data and analytics specialists Global IA&F and GIBEX capability teams to evaluate and deploy data sources tools and modeling approaches that strengthen forecasts.

• Identifyopportunities to embed AI and automation into forecasting workflows to improve efficiency scalability transparency and decision quality.

• Champion continuous improvement in forecasting processes AI-enabled modeling and automation.

• Contribute to the development and sharing of global best practices across the ID forecasting community.

Essential for the role

• Bachelors degree ina quantitative scientific health or business-relatedfield such as Statistics Economics Mathematics Engineering Life Sciences or Decision Science.

• 4 years experience in global pharmaceutical commercial forecasting including early-stage late-stage launch and/or in-market assets.

• Experience supporting business development evaluations commercial due diligence opportunity assessments or investment case development.

• Hands-on model ownership experience including build refresh and performance tracking across short- and long-term horizons.

• Expertise inscenario-based forecasting sensitivity analysis and driver-based narratives to support senior decision-making.

• Strong capability using multiple data and evidence sourcessuch as epidemiology claims real-world evidence syndicated data competitive intelligence and primary researchto build coherent decision-grade forecasts.

• Demonstrated forecast governance and model risk discipline including traceable assumptions documentation and clear explanations.

• Strong understanding of global market access pricing reimbursement policy and regional market dynamics and how they affect demand.

• Ability to translate complex forecasts andsupportingevidence into clear executive-ready insights options and recommendations.

• Strong commercial and financial acumen across key demand and valuation levers including positioning adoption competition lifecycle events probability of technical and regulatory success and risk adjustment.

Desirable for the role

• Advanceddegree such as an MBA MS MPH or PhD in Economics Statistics Decision Sciences Life Sciences or a related field.

• Infectious Disease and/or Rare Disease experience including familiarity with immunization dynamics patient-based forecasting and lifecycle management in preventive or infectious disease therapies.

• Experience forecasting across multiple geographies and working with global regional and market stakeholders.

• Demonstrated ability to work effectively with ambiguity and limited evidence in early-asset and business development settings.

• Changeleadership:builds adoption for new tools processes and ways of working across cross-functional stakeholders.

• Product perspective forforecasting:defines user needs success measures and a roadmap for global portfolio forecasting capabilities.